A storm in the Brainerd lakes area and near Mille Lacs Lake triggered a rare upgraded alert Monday morning, June 29, but the destructive conditions it warned of were never seen.
A Wireless Emergency Alert — a geographically targeted message sent to cell phones, also called a WEA — was issued for all of Crow Wing and much of Aitkin County just before midday, warning of 2-inch hail and 80 mph winds.
Storms Monday knocked out power for thousands and dropped some large hail across the Northland, but while some hail was reported, and the Brainerd Airport recorded a 46-mph gust, the morning storm in north-central Minnesota never reached the warned conditions.
WEAs are automatic for tornado warnings, but they are relatively rare for severe thunderstorm warnings.
If National Weather Service meteorologists expect a storm to be particularly destructive or dangerous, they can upgrade the warning with stronger "destructive" language and send out a WEA.
These storms might bring baseball-sized hail and 80 mph winds. Only about 10% of thunderstorms nationally reach the "destructive" category each year.
The National Weather Service in Duluth made the decision to issue a WEA because of the "conditional threat" of up to 80 mph wind gusts.
Joe Moore, warning coordination meteorologist for the weather service in Duluth, said the group of storms first began in South Dakota on Sunday night and produced a gust over 100 mph there.
The storm continued to track northeast, and the Duluth team expected it to keep heading that direction, moving into Koochiching County and over the Canadian border.
But the storm shifted east toward the Brainerd lakes area, the conditions were still right for damaging gusts and it was picking up speed, another sign it could bring strong winds.
The potential for damaging winds, the change in direction and the storm's speed, combined with the busy 4th of July week, were enough for the meteorologists to make the call.
“We were concerned about many people that are out recreating on lakes, and the fact that the storm was coming in at 50-60 mph means that you don’t have a lot of time between hearing the thunder, seeing the dark clouds on the horizon and actually getting off the lake,” Moore said in an interview Monday afternoon.
A pillow of protective warm air in the lower atmosphere largely prevented the winds from coming to the ground, he explained.
So because the storm didn’t come to fruition this time, does that mean you can ignore WEAs in the future?
"Absolutely not. I would say generally our warning accuracy for severe thunderstorms warning are very accurate," Moore said.
" ... I've worked a number of these events where nothing happens, nothing happens, and then we get a report of a camper tossed."
While June has been relatively calm, the severe weather season looks to be getting off to a delayed start. There was already another round of strong storms with the threat of tornadoes Monday night.
Moore noted that this time of year, the weather service's ability to predict storms is a bit lower than other weather events.
"Just because we can predict the snowfall to within an inch, and sometimes we can predict the rainfall pretty well, doesn't mean everytime is that easy," he said. "Little bit more challenging of a situation right now in this current weather pattern."
Over the first two weeks of July, conditions are right for regular rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. Now is the time to make sure you have plans in place in case storms hit, especially if you're out on the lake.
Thunderstorm safety tips from the National Weather Service
- Be Weather-Ready: Check the forecast regularly to see if you're at risk for severe weather. Listen to local news or a NOAA Weather Radio to stay informed about severe thunderstorm watches and warnings.
- Sign Up for Notifications: Know how your community sends warnings. Some communities have outdoor sirens. Others depend on media and smartphones to alert residents to severe storms.
- Create a Communications Plan: Have a family plan that includes an emergency meeting place and related information. Pick a safe room in your home such as a basement, storm cellar or an interior room on the lowest floor with no windows. Get more ideas for a plan at: https://www.ready.gov/make-a-plan.
- Practice Your Plan: Conduct a family severe thunderstorm drill regularly so everyone knows what to do if a damaging wind or large hail is approaching. Make sure all members of your family know to go there when severe thunderstorm warnings are issued. Don't forget pets if time allows.
- Prepare Your Home: Keep trees and branches trimmed near your house. If you have time before severe weather hits, secure loose objects, close windows and doors, and move any valuable objects inside or under a sturdy structure.
- Help Your Neighbor: Encourage your loved ones to prepare for severe thunderstorms. Take CPR training so you can help if someone is hurt during severe weather.
