Will this be the most unproductive Minnesota legislative session ever?

Minnesota lawmakers on Tuesday will gavel in for the 2026 legislative session’s first day, which will be dedicated to the late-Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband who were assassinated last summer.

Republican and Democratic-Farmer-Labor elected officials will share memories of the former House speaker and then gather for a reception that includes cake and bread — Melissa and Mark Hortman’s favorite treats to bake.

But that’s where the friendliness and cooperation will likely end.

Rarely has Minnesota faced so many urgent needs, but election year ambitions and heightened partisan vitriol are undermining hope for the bipartisan comity needed to pass anything in the closely divided Legislature.

Lawmakers will begin the session days after the Trump administration announced an end to Operation Metro Surge and the draw down of thousands of federal immigration agents in the state.

Most Minnesota Republicans have supported President Donald Trump’s mass deportation agenda and claimed protesters have impeded federal officers, while Democrats have defended the constitutional rights of detainees and protesters.

Operation Metro Surge is just the latest traumatic event since lawmakers adjourned in June 2025: A Democratic leader was assassinated and another badly injured, two children were killed in the Minneapolis Annunciation Church shooting, and Minnesota’s safety net programs have faced intense scrutiny from federal prosecutors and local and national journalists and influencers.

The two parties may find common cause around the fraud issue. Republicans will want to highlight the issue that’s become an albatross for Democrats, who in turn won’t want to give Republicans a campaign talking point by stopping anti-fraud measures.

A bipartisan bill that passed the Senate last year would create an Office of Inspector General, a new spending oversight entity with a law enforcement arm. It didn’t advance in the House but may find new life this year.

Politics at play

This will be the first time that the lawmakers, who have been hurling insults at each other online in recent weeks, will be back at the Capitol under the same roof, though even the physical space will feel markedly different.

The Minnesota State Capitol had been among the most open in the nation, but the violence and threats against lawmakers and the chaotic federal immigration enforcement operation pushed Gov. Tim Walz to order metal detectors, which now stand at Capitol entrances as well in the warren of tunnels that connect the Capitol campus.

Democrats hold a slim 34-33 majority in the Minnesota Senate, and Minnesota House is tied 67-67 between Republicans and Democrats. Lawmakers last year passed a $66 billion two-year budget, which means they don’t have to do anything to keep the lights on — another disincentive to any legislation passing.

Still, lawmakers and lobbyists for key interest groups will debate high-profile issues like sports gambling, assisted suicide, mining regulation and other contentious issues, and both parties say they’ll pursue some key priorities.

At the top of mind for many Democratic lawmakers is the months-long incursion of federal immigration agents into Minnesota that has harmed immigrants, businesses, schools, child care centers and a host of other industries.

Republicans are unlikely to offer the necessary votes to help — their base would react in fury to anything perceived as a giveaway to sanctuary cities and institutions that gave comfort to the resistance.

Even if a few Republicans could be persuaded, the state’s fiscal outlook has also dimmed in recent years. Although tax receipts came in $500 million above forecast in January, the state is facing a nearly $3 billion budget shortfall beginning in 2028 unless lawmakers act on it soon, according to a December forecast.

Democrats plan to introduce legislation to force federal immigration agents to take off their masks, while prohibiting agents from schools and ensuring they provide aid to Minnesotans they injure.

Democrats will also again propose gun control legislation, though Republicans will oppose significant measures like banning so-called assault rifles.

Democrats will also seek to permanently memorialize Hortman. House Democrats have proposals to rename the State Office Building in her honor and designate the Capitol Complex as a state park — long a Hortman priority.

On the Republican side, in addition to a slew of anti-fraud legislation, Republicans will also propose lining up the Minnesota tax code with the new federal tax cuts that passed last year, like on tips and overtime.

Republicans will also seek changes to the state’s paid leave program, which launched last month. They say it’s overly burdensome on businesses and vulnerable to fraud.

All these proposals cannot pass unless they receive bipartisan support.

Lawmakers this year will also consider an infrastructure package funded through government bonds, but that requires a supermajority to pass.

Compounding the challenges of the 2026 legislative session — it’s an election year. All 201 lawmakers’ seats will be on the ballot in November, and every piece of legislation will be viewed through that lens.

And, Minnesotans will be electing a new governor. Walz announced last month he wouldn’t seek a third term, and U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar is the only Democrat to enter the race.

House Speaker Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring, is the leader of the House Republican caucus and a frontrunner for the GOP nomination for Minnesota governor.

If Demuth provides any votes to pass bipartisan legislation, she risks being seen by Republican convention delegates as working with the enemy — including Walz — and it could tank her nomination prospects.

In an interview, Demuth denied that her electoral ambitions would get in the way of legislating.

“I’m not concerned about the work that we do and how it would affect things later on,” Demuth said.

House DFL caucus leader Zack Stephenson of Coon Rapids said House Democrats will be pressuring Demuth to pass legislation.

“Speaker Demuth has a choice to make here about whether she wants to have progress, or whether she wants to appeal to the conservative base that’s going to decide who the Republican nominee for governor is,” Stephenson said.

A long list of requests

The many businesses, schools, child care centers and others harmed by the months-long federal immigration operation in Minnesota will ask lawmakers for financial assistance.

Local leaders are already asking for Walz to declare a state of emergency and enact an eviction moratorium, like he did in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. But unlike 2020, the federal government will be of no help.

In fact, federal funding has become unreliable. The Trump administration has attempted to freeze money for child care, food stamps and public health. Minnesota has sued, and judges have allowed much of the money to flow so far. But the pauses have inflicted fear among many who rely on the dollars.

Hospitality businesses in Minnesota are “hemorrhaging,” said Hospitality Minnesota President CEO Angie Whitcomb.

The federal immigration surge has inflicted massive strain on Minnesota restaurants and hotels — with customers afraid to come here and employees afraid to go to work.

Whitcomb said the economic impacts to hospitality businesses in the past few months are more severe than even the COVID-19 pandemic. Immigrant-owned businesses have seen revenues drop as much as 80% or close altogether.

Whitcomb said it will take time for people in the hospitality industry to feel safe again.

“The reputational damage is going to be a tough one to recover from. People have to feel comfortable,” Whitcomb said.

Hospitality Minnesota is asking lawmakers for a sales tax holiday; changes to the state’s recently enacted “junk fees” ban and green-lighting tip pooling in the state. Whitcomb said these changes wouldn’t meet all the needs of businesses, but it’s a start.

The child care industry has been rocked on two fronts: fewer children are showing up because families have feared getting swept up by federal agents, and allegations of fraud have put federal dollars at risk.

Many families rely on Minnesota’s Child Care Assistance Program — a federally funded, state-managed program that subsidizes child care for low-income families. But families no longer receive the subsidy if their child misses 10 days in a row or more than 25 days of school in a calendar year.

When a child unenrolls, child care centers lose out on revenue to keep operations running.

The CCAP program has also been a target of the Trump administration since right-wing influencers posted videos alleging fraud by Somali child care providers. The Trump administration has attempted to cut CCAP funding, but the state says it already has money in the bank to last several months, and the cuts have been delayed by courts.

“Even if we’re doing everything perfectly to the tee there’s just so much fear around making a mistake and then having it be labeled as fraud … it’s a very scary thing for child care providers,” said Celeste Finn, executive director of Big Wonder Child Care in St. Paul.

Finn said Minnesota child care providers will ask the Legislature to reform licensing to ensure providers can meet regulations, changing the CCAP absentee policy temporarily and a relief package.

Finn acknowledged that the Legislature is unlikely to fulfill child care centers’ requests.

“I have hope, and I am also realistic,” Finn said.

School districts this year will primarily ask for emergency funding and for lawmakers to refrain from making substantial changes, said Kirk Schneidawind, executive director of the Minnesota School Boards Association.

Academics have been impacted by the surge. With numerous incidents of immigration enforcement around schools, some districts have offered online learning options for vulnerable families, but education experts worry this will impact academic achievement, citing the recent experience of the pandemic.

School funding is tied to attendance, and a school must demonstrate that a student is receiving remote learning to receive funding.

Another issue is ensuring spaces around schools remain safe from immigration enforcement.

Several Minnesota education organizations wrote a letter to Minnesota’s congressional delegation asking them to publicly affirm that the feds will not conduct immigration enforcement around schools. Minnesota lawmakers may try to pass legislation on that front, but federal law supersedes state law so a federal affirmation holds more weight, Schneidawind said.

Minnesota Reformer is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Minnesota Reformer maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor J. Patrick Coolican for questions: info@minnesotareformer.com.