Drought recedes, rivers swell in Minnesota with more heavy rainfall possible

Nearly 90% of Minnesota is no longer experiencing drought conditions, according to the most recent update from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Thanks to a rainy spring after a dry and warm winter, the areas impacted by drought have mostly receded to a north-central swath of the state. This includes nearly all of Beltrami County and stretches from northern Cass and western Itasca to the Canadian border.

In the last 30 days, Northern Minnesotans have seen anywhere from 4 to 8 inches of rain, according to the National Weather Service in Duluth. Totals in the far northern Arrowhead region and the Red River Valley are 1.5 to 3 inches above normal for this time of year. Notably, these were also the areas experiencing some of the worst drought conditions.

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U.S. Drought Monitor

National Weather Service meteorologist Ketzel Levens said the precipitation has greatly alleviated the early April concerns about drought and a dangerous wildfire season.

"Our current pattern right now doesn’t necessarily dictate what we’re going to see in July or August, but it certainly sets us up for better success," Levens said. "So we’ve seen our soil moisture values rebound, we’ve got nice moist soils, we’ve seen our stream flows come back up and we’ve seen everything green up really nicely into beautiful, lush forests and grasslands."

Rainfall in frequent small amounts is helpful in seeing these measures improve. But sometimes there can be too much of a good thing, when heavy rains dump inches of precip in a short time. Levens said they’ve received reports of fields being too wet to plant and stream flows are very high in some areas.

"We’ve gone from a total switch of being concerned about drought and fire conditions to, you know, are we susceptible to flooding? And the answer is, we certainly could be," she said.

Some forest roads are impassable in the Superior National Forest near Cook because of the heavy rain. The Forest Service said flooding in the LaCroix Ranger District caused washouts on two roadways that will be now be closed until repair.

The Polk County Sheriff’s Office advised residents to stay safe around the Red River, which neared minor flood stage this week. And real-time river gauges along Minnesota’s state water trails show the St. Louis, Vermillion and Big and Little Fork rivers have very high flows.

Forecast

Rain is in the forecast through the weekend with severe storms and heavy rainfall possible. A cold front associated with a strong low pressure system moving through the Upper Midwest will bring the potential for severe thunderstorms and heavy rain late Sunday afternoon into Monday.

The best chance for severe storms will be over north-central and most of northeast Minnesota late Sunday afternoon through evening. All severe weather hazards — damaging winds, large hail or a tornado — are possible, but details in their timing and magnitudes are still uncertain. Heavy rain amounts in excess of an inch and possibly minor flooding are also in play for the Northland, with the best potential in the north-central region.