The record-breaking wildfire smoke may have abated, but periods of smoke are expected in Minnesota through the rest of the summer and fall as wildfires burn in the Superior National Forest.
There are three main variables that determine how smoke will impact an area.
The first is how much smoke a wildfire is putting out. A fire that is torching entire trees will produce a lot more smoke than one that is smoldering in the understory.
Ryan Lueck, a meteorologist with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, said forecasters have learned from past smoke seasons that wildfires ebb and flow.
"Sometimes they're more active. Sometimes they put out a lot of smoke," he explained. "Other times, they're a little bit more dormant. Especially if you have periods of wetter weather and lots of rain."
The next factor is pretty intuitive: the wind direction. In Minnesota, smoke is generally brought in by winds from the west or the north.
The final factor is how deeply the smoke is mixing in the atmosphere.
It may stay high up, creating milky skies and spectacular sunsets, but not impacting air quality. It's when smoke is dragged down to the lower atmosphere that it becomes a problem.
Cold fronts are often the culprit, as cooler air sinks. Lueck said that was the case during the week of July 13.
"That's why we've gotten the smoke transported as far as we have," he said. "That boundary stalled across southern Minnesota."
The PCA predicts the moderate smoke that moved into Northern Minnesota earlier this week will begin to clear out Friday, July 24, as winds come from the south. Weather conditions may be favorable for increased fire activity — and smoke production — starting Friday.
Another wave of light smoke from Canadian wildfires is expected to move into Northern Minnesota Saturday and linger through Sunday.
Visit the PCA's website to see the current air quality and full forecast.
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