Ongoing primary elections in Texas could be a first look at whether Latino swing voters, who are increasingly influential in state elections, are sticking with the Republican Party.
These voters were key in President Trump's reelection in 2024 and helped Republicans win in parts of the state where they have historically struggled, mostly along the southern border.
Those gains also played a key role in how Republicans reshaped the state's congressional lines at Trump's urging last year. Three out of the five seats that the Republicans drew to favor their party rely on continued support from Latino voters.
Yet there have been some recent signs that Latinos in the state, as well as nationwide, are beginning to back away from the Republican Party. And primaries could provide another picture on where that support currently stands.
Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, said Latinos are mainly a young population that is expanding Texas' pool of new voters. And they are also a voting bloc that is not consistently aligned with either major political party.
"The Latino electorate has emerged as the biggest swing vote in Texas because they are willing to side with either party," he said, "depending on the kinds of issues that are presented by the candidates."
A once winning issue could become a liability
The economy and immigration were top issues that drove many Texas Latinos to support Trump in 2024. But lingering high prices and cost-of-living issues could become a liability for Republicans in power.
"There's a sense that the Republicans have squandered a situation where they were likely to get the Latino vote on their side for several election cycles," Rottinghaus said.
Daniel Garza works as president of the LIBRE Initiative to mobilize Latino voters to support conservative candidates. He believes the economy will continue to be the deciding factor in whom these voters support.
"This election, like previous elections, is going to be, if you're a candidate from either side, all hands on deck. It's all in on the economy," he said, "on jobs, opportunity, inflation, gas prices, energy production, you know, anything that can control health prices. You know, these kind of narratives, I think, can be really important."
Garza's group has been working for years in Texas, as well as throughout the United States. And he thinks there are enough economic bright spots that candidates could focus on to shore up support.
"You're seeing inflation leveling off," he said. "You're seeing energy production that has brought down gas prices, and that's going to increase. You're seeing interest rates come down to where now you can begin to look at, you know, owning a home again."
Will ICE enforcement split Latino voters?
Rottinghaus, who has over the years polled Latino voters in the state, said that Texas' party primaries could be an indicator on whether some Latino voters are frustrated enough about the Trump administration's tough immigration enforcement tactics to change their votes this year. He said in particular it will be interesting to see the percentage of voters in Latino communities casting ballots in the Democratic primary versus the Republican primary. Texas has open primaries, which means any eligible voter can participate in whatever party's primary they want.
"We are seeing increased Democratic turnout in places and in counties where you've got a significant chunk of the Latino electorate," he said. "That is a signal for Democrats that they're able to compete again."
Another potential weak spot for the GOP in Texas is immigration, one of its strongest issues with Latinos in 2024. But Rottinghaus said recent concerns over how U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is handling deportations has made many voters "feel like civil rights and freedoms," as well as "their personal safety," are at risk.
"It has effectively cratered support among Latinos for Donald Trump and for the Republicans," he said.
But Garza is skeptical that the Democratic brand will have improved enough among Latino voters in Texas to manifest in any real shift away from Republicans. He said "extreme positions" touted by some Democrats, such as defunding ICE, could sustain GOP support from these voters.
"The biggest danger for Democrats, with respect to the Latino vote, is that Latinos are getting comfortable voting for Republicans," Garza said. "I think that it's put Democrats on their heels in a very real way. And now they've had to take positions that appeal to Latinos. And these extreme positions, especially on … immigration. You're not going to win them back."
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