AILSA CHANG, HOST:
All right, we are 200 days from Election Day, November 3, though plenty of primary elections are coming in the weeks ahead or have already happened. And we have new campaign fundraising numbers out this week, which give us some idea about where money is coming from and where it's going. Let's bring in now NPR's Domenico Montanaro and Stephen Fowler to break it all down for us. Hey to both of you.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey, great to be with you.
STEPHEN FOWLER, BYLINE: Hey there.
CHANG: All right, Stephen, let's start with you. As you've been looking at these most recent fundraising numbers, what stands out to you?
FOWLER: Let me tell you where the money is going.
CHANG: Yeah.
FOWLER: To Democrats in high-profile senate races. Incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia reported $14 million from the last quarter; Roy Cooper, the former governor of North Carolina, $13 million; and Democratic nominee in Texas James Talarico, $27 million.
CHANG: Wow.
FOWLER: In many of these races, the Democrats are outraising the entire Republican field by multiple times over. There's clearly a lot of enthusiasm there. We're also noticing a continuation of a trend that we've reported on, which is several older House Democratic incumbents are being outraised by younger primary challengers, as there's a bit of a generational shift happening right now within the party. Also in the House, you're seeing Democrats raise huge sums of money in districts that you would expect to be competitive in a year like this and also in some more conservative-leaning districts.
CHANG: Well, Domenico, remind us about the importance of all of this money, like, why it matters so much.
MONTANARO: Look, money does matter in politics, obviously. You know, candidates need it for TV ads and get-out-the-vote efforts. But the political landscape has been so flooded with so much money, you have to wonder, you know, if we're at a saturation point. Plus, Democrats have had huge financial advantages in lots of recent election cycles, including 2024, and they lost the presidency.
You know, money, though, you know, can also be a sign of enthusiasm, like Stephen's talking about here. And that's always important but even more so in a midterm year, when a House or Senate candidate, you know, can't ride the coattails of a presidential candidate. So this is really a big edge for Democrats when we're talking about activism.
CHANG: OK, but how would you characterize the mood in the two parties at this point? Like, how are campaigns feeling about where things are headed, do you think?
MONTANARO: Yeah, I mean, that's the other piece of this because the national environment's so negative for Trump and Republicans right now because the economy and an unpopular war in Iran, you know, is really leading to Democrats now being the odds-on favorite to pick up the house. You know, that's even with a playing field that's as small or smaller than it's ever been for the House. There are only about a few dozen seats that are really truly competitive right now, but with such a narrow majority for Republicans, the field tipping in either direction at all is a pretty big deal, and it's been all in Democrats favor these last few months.
On the Senate side, Republicans are increasingly nervous. Democrats need to pick up a net gain of four seats to take control of the upper chamber. That's still going to be difficult for Democrats, given a lot of the red terrain that these Senate races are being fought out on. But Republicans are expecting anywhere from a 1- to 3-seat gain for Democrats. Democrats believe they have a path to those four seats, but again, it runs through some pretty Republican territory over the last few election cycles, places like Alaska and Ohio.
CHANG: Stephen, we're hearing Domenico say, it seems like it's in the Democratic Party's favor. But polling for Democrats has not been especially favorable either, right? So are they feeling confident about 2026?
FOWLER: The word I would use is cautiously optimistic. I mean, some Democrats I talked to also point to Iowa as an opportunity where they see an opportunity to switch up a lot of things. In many ways, there are a lot of factors that are lining up in Democrats' favor, for sure. They have strong candidates in key races that they have to defend and where they want to flip control. The national party strategy has been to shovel money to state parties, to focus on things like voter outreach and organizing, and try to capitalize on a string of electoral overperformances in basically every election that's happened since Trump returned to office at the beginning of last year.
MONTANARO: Yeah, I have to say, Republicans also flagged Iowa as a Senate race that could become competitive because of the economy, a kind of populist streak in the state, and those tariffs that have really angered farmers. Many Democrats, notably, are running on their own brands in a lot of these kind of more red-leaning states, frankly distancing themselves from Washington and the big-D Democratic Party. You know, but they can do that because they don't have an unpopular president in the White House whose record they have to defend, and that's what becomes difficult for virtually every president's party in midterms.
FOWLER: And Domenico, to that point, you do see independents from the party - quite literally, in the red states of Montana and Nebraska, where the independent Senate candidates outraised everybody in the last quarter.
MONTANARO: Yeah.
CHANG: So this is how things look right now, but 200 days is still a long time when it comes to elections, right? Like, this could all change. So what are you both watching for going forward? Domenico, let's start with you.
MONTANARO: Well, you know, I don't know how much it's going to change because the big thing to watch, of course, is whether the economy improves at all or gets worse. You know, where are gas prices? Trump doesn't help matters when he says things like gas prices aren't really all that high like he did yesterday. Nearly half the country not only disapproves of Trump, but record numbers strongly disapprove of the job he's doing. That kind of intensity is like the sun. It blots out any of those potential warts within the Democratic Party, really something that is an issue, but it's going to be much more of an important factor in 2028.
CHANG: Stephen?
FOWLER: And that's another thing that I'm looking at. It's because how voters feel about Democrats and Republicans in 2024 is different than 2026 and especially 2028.
CHANG: That is NPR's Stephen Fowler and Domenico Montanaro. Thank you to both of you.
MONTANARO: You're so welcome.
FOWLER: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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